Time to Face Reality
05/14/12 Author: Charles LiebermanEuropean markets remain in turmoil, even as these governments prefer to keep their heads buried in the sand. Sooner or later, reality intrudes. Greece and Spain are in the vanguard of being forced out of their fantasy world and a second default, following closely on the first, now appears likely. Greece is small enough so its problems will impinge little on markets, if Spain can handle its bank issues sensibly. Read More...
Housing Recovery Now Underway
04/30/12 Author: Charles LiebermanMany focused on the slower than expected pace of growth in first quarter GDP, but the stronger rise in housing activity merited little more than passing mention. However, housing construction is gathering steam, as inventories are now severely depressed and demographic trends require a resumption in new construction. Autos were another significant contributor to growth. We expect both sectors to continue as key sources of demand in the ongoing expansion. Read More...
The Politics of Oil
04/16/12 Author: Charles LiebermanOil prices have given a bit of ground recently, as rising inventories suggest that any possible supply disruptions may be more limited in scope than had been feared. The Saudis have increased supply, even as Libya and Iraq increase production, offsetting reduced supplies of Iranian oil and increased stockpiling by China. It is a bit soon to be confident that oil supplies will be adequate should a conflict erupt with Read More...
Still, Plenty Good
04/09/12 Author: Charles LiebermanMarch payroll employment was disappointing, although economic gains cannot be expected to move in a smooth ascending growth curve. Economic trends remain solid. There is little reason to expect monetary policy to change as yet, although the latest figures reinforce the Fed’s concern that job growth is insufficient to reduce unemployment as much and as quickly as they would prefer. So, there’s every reason to expect policy to remain highly Read More...
It’s All Data (Jobs) Dependent
04/02/12 Author: Charles Lieberman, CIOThe performance of the economy has improved quite substantially over the past several months, with very significant implications for policy and politics. A healthier labor market is sufficient to insure a healthier economy, which supports the rally in the stock market, the decline in bond prices, and the rise of President Obama in the polls. Numerous issues will affect the political polls in the coming months, but the outlook for Read More...
Did Steve Jobs Despise Shareholders?
03/26/12 Author: John PetridesLast week, Apple announced it will initiate a $2.65 per share quarterly dividend and a $10 billion share repurchase program, finally returning a portion of the $100 billion of cash (2/3rds of which is held overseas and subject to repatriation tax) it has on its balance sheet to shareholders. Clearly, since the passing of Mr. Jobs, management has focused more of its attention on shareholders, something uninteresting to Mr. Jobs. Read More...
Did You See The 10-Year?
03/19/12 Author: John Petrides, ACM Growth and Balanced Portfolio ManagerThis week the US 10 year Treasury note spiked from 2% yield on Monday to 2.4% by the end of Wednesday. Around the office we were marveling at this move. Given the recent volatility in the equity market, that might not seem like much to stock investors, but to those in the fixed income world that’s quite a change. The sudden spike in Treasuries has several implications: 1. Those investors Read More...
To Hell and Back in
03/12/12 Author: Charles LiebermanThis past week saw the three year anniversary of the market low on March 9, 2009. How far we’ve come! The most crucial lesson that investors should have learned is that good investments recover, no matter how dramatically the market may decline, no matter how volatile it may be at times, and they should approach investing with a long-term plan in mind. Many investors were shaken out of the market Read More...
